You will launch your probability investigation by testing surprising real-life scenarios, examining what makes a prediction convincing, and choosing a current issue you may investigate. You will record first estimates, compare them to evidence, study strong examples of probability communication, and leave with a focused question, an initial method idea, and clear expectations for the project products.

You will investigate a surprising probability situation, turn your curiosity into one focused current-issue question, and build a testable plan with a justified method, variables, and calculations before you begin major data collection.

You will gather and organize evidence for your current-issue probability investigation, calculate empirical probabilities from trial data or source data, and test whether your records are strong enough to support a fair decision claim later. You will document assumptions, track anomalies, and use peer critique to strengthen your method before moving into full analysis and prediction.

You will turn your collected evidence into a probability model, calculate expected value, test how strong your reasoning is through critique, and build a clear poster draft that explains your prediction, recommendation, and how your thinking changed.

You will present your probability prediction to an authentic audience, defend your model and recommendation with evidence, and document how your thinking changed from your first estimate to your final conclusion.